![]() ![]() Under current law, debt held by the public will rise from a post-war record 80 percent of GDP today to above 98 percent by 2030.Deficits will further rise under current law to $1.7 trillion (5.4 percent of GDP) by 2030. The budget deficit will total $1.02 trillion (4.6 percent of GDP) this year – the first trillion-dollar deficit in history not caused by the Great Recession.But it looks like the economic math works well in its favor.Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its January 2020 Budget and Economic Outlook, projecting the return of trillion-dollar deficits as well as high and rising debt and deficits over the next decade and beyond. The legislative math might not be right for a big minimum wage hike right now. And what their work shows is that, when you add everything up, the working class likely still comes out ahead. If you wanted to see a thorough assessment of the $15 minimum wage produced by a moderate conservative skeptic making an effort to at least be somewhat fair, the CBO’s report is more or less it. Bush administration who did a stint as a nonresident scholar at the center-right American Enterprise Institute. Though the budget office is officially nonpartisan and truly does its best to avoid the political fray, its current head is Phillip Swagel, a Republican former official in the George W. It’s also not an especially surprising move, given who currently runs the CBO. The CBO offers various technical reasons for why it chose to assume the minimum wage would have such a large impact on jobs, and perhaps it’s not entirely absurd to be cautious: After all, in the states that haven’t already passed higher minimum wages, the climb to $15 would be very steep compared with most minimum-wage hikes in history, and as a result could cause more disruptions for businesses, even if it was implemented gradually over several years. Something Has Happened to the Travel Industry. The Publishing Industry Has a New Nightmare The average was -0.31, only about two-thirds of what the CBO ultimately went with. He concluded that, in studies looking at workers directly affected by minimum wage hikes, the median elasticity was -0.15, less than one-third of what the CBO chose. ![]() ![]() Just last month, University of California–Irvine professor David Neumark, who is widely considered the dean of minimum-wage critics in academia, released a draft paper in which he compiled the results of three decades of papers in the field. That’s a big, fat elasticity, and while some recent studies have suggested that the minimum wage could have an effect that large, they aren’t typical. But based on the results it published, other economists have concluded the budget office went with an elasticity of around -0.48, meaning that for every 10 percent increase in the minimum wage, employment would fall 4.8 percent among workers whose jobs were affected. In a stark and slightly suspicious failure of wonk transparency, the budget office did not actually state outright the number they chose to use anywhere in their report. When analysts try to estimate how many jobs will disappear if the minimum wage increases, their result depends almost entirely on which elasticity they pick. ![]()
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